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Emigrating to Australia from the UK? Its population forecast hinges on who pays for an older country

News · 2026-09-25 · 4 min read

Every few years Australia publishes an Intergenerational Report, and every time it sets off another row about migration. If you are in the UK and seriously thinking about the move, the shouting can hide the part of the latest report that actually helps you understand the country you might be joining.

The figure that settles one argument

A familiar claim says newcomers make each Australian poorer. The Treasury modelling put that to the test. Whether Australia takes in 185,000 migrants a year or 285,000, income per person barely changes: the difference in GDP per capita by 2066 is around $400, in an economy producing about $150,000 a year per person. If migration were really thinning out prosperity, this is where it would have shown. It did not.

Where the numbers really move

The big difference is in how well the country can pay its way. A smaller intake means a smaller economy overall, with national growth slowing from roughly 1.6% to 1.3%, and an older population facing a larger bill.

Take the old-age dependency ratio, which counts retirees for every 100 people of working age. It sits at about 27 now and is expected to reach somewhere between 38 and 43 by 2066, depending on migration settings. Australia ages whichever path it takes. Migration softens the trend because people tend to arrive in their working years and add to the tax base that funds pensions, healthcare and the NDIS (the National Disability Insurance Scheme). On the low-migration path, gross debt as a share of GDP was projected to rise by roughly 4.8 percentage points.

So the real debate is not whether individuals get richer or poorer. It is who covers the rising cost of an older population:

• today's workers, through higher taxes
• migrants, through their work and tax
• future governments, through more borrowing

Productivity matters even more

The finding that drew far less attention is that productivity outweighs migration by a wide margin. Treasury modelled productivity growth between 0.8% and 1.6%, and at the top end, income per person rises by tens of thousands of dollars while government debt almost vanishes.

That turns the usual argument around. The headcount everyone fights over is a secondary lever. The main one is how efficiently the workforce, newcomers included, actually works. For you, the useful question is not just how many people Australia lets in, but what kind of economy you would be entering and how fast it can put your skills to use.

Reading it as a UK worker

None of this is a reason for gloom. In the government's own modelling, skilled people of working age are part of the answer to an ageing population, whichever side of the debate wins.

Expect policy to keep shifting with the politics. Net migration targets are already being wound down towards 225,000 by 2028. But the demographic sums mean demand for working-age migrants is not going away, because it is part of what keeps the system solvent.

If you want to act on that, the groundwork is the same as ever. Check which visa matches your occupation on the Australian visa listing. UK trade qualifications, such as an NVQ or a completed apprenticeship, are usually assessed again in Australia, so find out early what your occupation needs.

A warning, not a prophecy

Australia does not have one correct population number. What it has is a widening gap between an older population and the workforce needed to support it, and migration and productivity are the two main tools to close it. A report like this works best if its gloomiest forecasts never come true because they prompted a change of course in time.

For more on the same report, read why Australia's ageing future depends on migration and how net overseas migration shapes the visa system. Ready to look at roles? Browse jobs in Australia for UK citizens.

#population forecast #australia #intergenerational report #productivity #emigrate to australia from the uk